Kenya Braces for Wetter October as Met Warns of Heavy Rainfall and Flood Risk

Kenya is heading into a wetter October, with the Kenya Meteorological Department forecasting above-average rainfall across a wide stretch of the country and warning of heavy rainfall events in some areas.

The latest monthly forecast puts Nairobi, Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu, Mandera and several counties in eastern and central Kenya among areas with higher chances of receiving above-average rainfall this month.

The warning comes as Kenya enters the October-December short-rains season, which is expected to be wetter than normal across much of the country.

The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority had earlier forecast above-average rainfall across about 80 per cent of the country during the three-month season. It also warned that the rains could come with prolonged wet spells and isolated storms.

For residents in flood-prone areas, the message from the latest forecast is less about waiting for a major storm and more about preparing before one arrives.

Where the heaviest rains are expected

According to the October forecast, the highest probabilities of above-average rainfall are expected in Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and Mandera.

Parts of Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa and Wajir are also expected to receive more rain than the October average.

Central and eastern Kenya are also in the forecast.

They include Makueni, Kajiado, Machakos, Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Nyandarua and Nyeri.

Parts of Marsabit, Laikipia, Nakuru and Narok are also expected to record above-average rainfall.

The Kenya Meteorological Department's October bulletin is the latest month-specific forecast and should be read alongside shorter-term updates, which can change as weather systems develop.

Nairobi among areas to watch

Nairobi's inclusion in the above-average rainfall forecast is significant because heavy downpours can quickly overwhelm drainage systems in some parts of the city.

The capital has already been strengthening preparations for the October rains, with authorities identifying flood-prone areas and working on drainage and other mitigation measures.

The national government has also been preparing for the wider rainy season.

The Ministry of Health activated an El Niño preparedness plan in September and issued guidance to all 47 counties, citing the risk of flooding, contaminated water and increased mosquito breeding.

Health authorities have warned that flooding can increase the risk of waterborne diseases such as cholera and typhoid, as well as mosquito-borne illnesses including malaria and dengue.

When should Kenyans expect the rains?

The start of the short rains will not be the same everywhere.

The seasonal outlook released in August indicated that many parts of the country would see the onset of the rains during the second and third weeks of October.

Western Kenya is already receiving rainfall, while the timing and intensity of the short rains will vary from one region to another.

That means the October forecast should not be interpreted as a prediction that the entire country will experience continuous heavy rain throughout the month.

Instead, the concern is that rainfall totals may be higher than normal and that some periods could bring particularly intense rainfall.

Western and Rift Valley regions

Several western and Rift Valley counties are expected to receive near-average to above-average rainfall.

They include Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Homa Bay, Kakamega, Kericho, Kisii, Kisumu, Migori, Nandi, Nyamira, Siaya, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga and West Pokot.

Samburu and parts of Turkana and Marsabit are also expected to experience near-average to above-average rainfall.

The distribution will not be uniform, however.

The Met Department has previously cautioned that some northern areas could experience rainfall ranging from poor to average even within a generally wetter season.

More rain does not mean cooler weather everywhere

An important part of the latest forecast is that wetter conditions will not necessarily bring cooler temperatures across the country.

The Met Department expects warmer-than-average temperatures in October, with particularly high probabilities along the Coast.

Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi and Lamu, as well as parts of Tana River, Taita Taveta and Garissa, are among the areas expected to experience warmer conditions.

This combination of rain and higher temperatures could affect farming, water availability and livestock management in different ways.

What the forecast means for farmers

For farmers, the wetter season could provide opportunities for planting and improving water availability.

Government officials have previously said the expected rains could help replenish water sources, improve pasture and support agricultural production.

But farmers are also being advised to follow county-specific and shorter-term forecasts rather than relying only on the seasonal outlook.

The timing of planting, crop management and harvesting can be affected by even short periods of unusually heavy rainfall.

Flood preparedness remains critical

The Met Department has repeatedly urged Kenyans and institutions to use weather information before severe conditions develop.

Environment officials have also stressed the importance of turning forecasts into early action rather than waiting until flooding occurs.

For households in flood-prone areas, that means monitoring official weather updates, avoiding flooded roads and waterways, protecting important documents and valuables, and knowing where to move if authorities issue evacuation advice.

Motorists should also expect possible disruptions when intense rainfall hits areas with poor drainage, flooded roads or unstable ground.

The government has warned that the 2026 rainy season requires early preparation, particularly in counties considered vulnerable to flooding and other weather-related hazards.

The October forecast does not mean every county will experience severe flooding.

But with above-average rainfall expected across a large part of Kenya, the difference between a normal rainy season and a damaging one could come down to how quickly residents and authorities respond when heavy rain is forecast.

About the Author

Maureen Onyango is a journalist passionate about storytelling, life coaching and spiritual lessons. She studied at the Kenya Institute of Management and enjoys telling stories that inform, inspire and empower communities.