Government sounds El Niño alarm, puts 18 counties on high alert

The government has placed 18 counties on high alert ahead of an expected strong El Niño event that could bring above-normal rainfall from October, raising the risk of floods, landslides, disease outbreaks and infrastructure damage.

The Ministry of Interior and National Administration said the country could experience significant weather disruptions from October, with the effects potentially extending into early 2027.

According to the government, weather authorities have placed the probability of a strong El Niño event at 81 per cent, while there is a 97 per cent chance that its effects could be felt into early next year.

The National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) has consequently stepped up preparedness measures in areas considered particularly vulnerable.

18 counties on alert

The counties identified by the government are spread across the Coast, Lake Basin, Rift Valley and North Eastern regions.

Coast: Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Mombasa and Kwale.

These counties face possible flooding, storm surges, coastal erosion and infrastructure damage. Authorities warned that some residents could be displaced by flooding.

Lake Basin: Kisumu, Busia, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori.

The region could face flooding, landslides, disease outbreaks and displacement.

Rift Valley: Turkana, Baringo, West Pokot and Narok.

The government has identified risks including drought, flash floods, landslides, livestock losses and food insecurity.

North Eastern: Garissa, Wajir and Mandera.

Residents could face drought, water shortages, livestock losses, poor pasture and food insecurity.

Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu flagged

The government has also singled out Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu as high-risk urban centres.

The cities could experience flooding, blocked drainage systems, pressure on infrastructure and disruptions to essential services if heavy rains intensify.

Authorities are particularly concerned about the ability of urban drainage systems to cope with intense rainfall.

Emergency teams activated

The government said the counties were prioritised based on their vulnerability to different El Niño-related risks.

However, officials said the list could be expanded if further assessments identify additional areas at risk.

National Emergency Multi-Agency and County Emergency Response teams have been placed on high alert and are being sensitised on their roles ahead of the expected weather changes.

The government is urging preparedness as it maps areas vulnerable to flooding, landslides, drought, disease outbreaks and infrastructure damage.

With the rainy season still weeks away, authorities say early preparation will be critical in reducing loss of lives, displacement and damage to property and infrastructure.

For residents in the affected counties, the warning is clear: prepare early rather than wait for the rains to arrive.