Kenya Faces Hotter, Wetter November as Met Warns of Floods in 44 Counties

For Nairobi residents, the outlook is particularly notable. The capital and neighbouring counties, including Kiambu and Murang’a, are expected to experience above-average temperatures even as the short rains continue.

The department's monthly forecast indicates that temperatures will vary considerably depending on altitude and location. In the highlands, mean temperatures are generally expected to range between 15°C and 20°C. Arid and semi-arid areas are likely to be warmer, with mean temperatures exceeding 28°C.

In parts of the north, daytime highs could reach 38°C. Night-time temperatures along the Coast are expected to remain relatively warm, ranging between 20°C and 25°C.

Why the rains could bring fresh challenges

The rainfall outlook presents both opportunities and risks.

Farmers could benefit from improved soil moisture and more pasture for livestock after several months of limited rainfall. The rains are also expected to replenish rivers, dams and other water sources.

But excessive rainfall could make it harder to move agricultural produce from farms to markets. Rural roads may deteriorate or become impassable, while urban drainage systems could struggle to cope with heavy downpours.

Kenya Met has warned that low-lying areas, settlements near rivers and towns with poor drainage face a heightened risk of flooding. Heavy rainfall in highland areas could also trigger landslides.

The risks extend beyond transport and infrastructure. Flooding can contaminate water supplies and damage sanitation facilities. Stagnant water may also create breeding grounds for mosquitoes, increasing the risk of malaria in susceptible areas.

Acting Director of the Kenya Meteorological Department Edward Muriuki said rainfall patterns in November would be shaped by several regional and global climate systems.

These include the Indian Ocean Dipole, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Madden–Julian Oscillation and tropical cyclones over the Indian Ocean.

The systems influence where rain falls, how much is received and how intense individual rainfall events become. The department has not said that El Niño has begun, and the forecast should not be interpreted as an announcement of a new El Niño event.

Counties facing the wettest conditions

The 44 counties expected to receive above-average rainfall include Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Nakuru, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Meru, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi, Kirinyaga, Machakos, Makueni, Kajiado, Kitui and Laikipia.

Other areas on the list include Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Isiolo, Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega, Vihiga, Nandi, Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Kericho, Bomet, Baringo and Narok. Much of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit is also expected to receive above-average rainfall.

Parts of Turkana, West Pokot, Samburu, Baringo and Marsabit are forecast to receive near-average to above-average rainfall.

Muriuki said November is an important part of the October-to-December short rains season, which supports farming, water supplies and livestock production.

The department has urged residents to follow local forecasts and weather advisories rather than assume that the same conditions will affect every county at the same time.

It has also advised farmers, transport operators and households in flood-prone areas to plan ahead. Seasonal forecasts provide a broad picture, while shorter-term updates offer more specific information on when and where heavy rain is likely.

With rainfall expected to increase while temperatures remain above normal, the challenge for authorities will be to help communities benefit from the rains while reducing the risk of flooding, damaged infrastructure and disease.

About the Author

Maureen Onyango is a journalist passionate about storytelling, life coaching and spiritual lessons. She studied at the Kenya Institute of Management and enjoys telling stories that inform, inspire and empower communities.