Majority of Kenyans Say Country Is Heading in Wrong Direction as Economic Anxiety Grows — TIFA - Livenow Breaking news, Kenyan News, World News. Videos

A majority of Kenyans believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, according to the latest public-opinion findings by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA), highlighting persistent economic and political dissatisfaction as President William Ruto's administration moves closer to the 2027 General Election.

The findings suggest that the cost of living, unemployment and concerns about governance continue to shape how Kenyans judge the country's direction, even as the government points to improving economic indicators and progress in implementing its development programmes.

The poll adds another measure of the political mood at a time when Ruto is defending his record and opposition leaders are intensifying efforts to build a coalition capable of challenging him in 2027.

Why Kenyans say the country is heading in the wrong direction

Economic concerns remain central to public dissatisfaction.

For many households, the government's macroeconomic arguments — including currency stability, lower inflation and improving economic indicators — compete with a much simpler measure of economic performance: how much money people have left after paying for food, rent, transport, electricity and school expenses.

Unemployment and the difficulty young people face finding stable jobs also remain important concerns.

This creates a political challenge for the government.

An economy can improve statistically before households feel that improvement in their daily lives.

If wages and employment opportunities fail to grow sufficiently, falling inflation does not necessarily mean that goods have become cheap. It largely means prices are rising more slowly than before.

Ruto faces a perception problem

President Ruto came to power in 2022 after campaigning heavily on improving the economic circumstances of ordinary Kenyans, particularly people he described as being at the "bottom of the pyramid."

His administration has subsequently implemented policies including the Housing Levy, Social Health Authority reforms, the Hustler Fund and major agricultural and infrastructure programmes.

But several government policies have also generated resistance.

Taxation became a particularly explosive political issue during the anti-Finance Bill demonstrations of 2024, which evolved into a broader youth-led challenge to government accountability, public expenditure and political leadership.

Public anger surrounding those demonstrations fundamentally altered Kenya's political environment.

The latest TIFA findings suggest that dissatisfaction over the direction of the country remains an important factor two years later.

Police and protests remain politically sensitive

The survey also comes amid continuing scrutiny of police conduct during political demonstrations.

Kenya has experienced repeated controversies over deaths, injuries, arrests and alleged abductions associated with anti-government protests.

Cases arising from the demonstrations remain before courts and investigative bodies.

The death of Rex Masai during the June 2024 anti-Finance Bill protests, for example, became one of the defining cases of the demonstrations and remains the subject of judicial scrutiny.

How Kenyans view police conduct therefore matters politically beyond the security sector.

For younger voters in particular, policing has increasingly become intertwined with questions about freedom of expression, political accountability and the right to protest.

The economy could decide 2027

The findings point to what could become the central issue in the 2027 presidential election: whether Kenyans feel economically better off than they were five years earlier.

Ruto's government has argued that difficult measures taken during the first years of his presidency were necessary to stabilise the economy.

The administration has pointed to improvements including a stronger shilling, easing inflation and economic growth as evidence that those measures are beginning to work.

But political benefits from macroeconomic improvement are not automatic.

For voters to change their assessment of the country's direction, economic gains generally need to become visible through jobs, disposable income, affordable food, functioning public services and greater financial security.

That creates a narrowing window for the government ahead of the next election.

Opposition still faces its own problem

Public dissatisfaction with the direction of the country does not automatically translate into support for the opposition.

Kenya's opposition remains fragmented, with several leaders positioning themselves for influence ahead of 2027.

They include former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and other political figures attempting to construct alliances capable of challenging Ruto.

The opposition must therefore convert dissatisfaction with government into confidence in an alternative administration.

That is a different political task.

A voter can believe the country is heading in the wrong direction while remaining unconvinced that any opposition candidate offers a better solution.

This distinction will become increasingly important as opinion polls begin testing potential presidential combinations and voter preferences.

Why the poll matters

Political polls more than a year before an election should not be treated as predictions of the final result.

Kenyan politics can change rapidly through economic developments, coalition realignments, candidate selection, regional alliances and major national events.

But direction-of-country polling remains useful because it measures the broader environment in which an incumbent government is seeking re-election.

If dissatisfaction remains high into 2027, Ruto could enter the campaign having to persuade voters that his economic programme is beginning to deliver.

If household conditions improve substantially, the same voters could reassess the government's performance before polling day.

That makes one question more important than today's political alliances:

Will Kenyans actually feel economically better off by the time they vote in 2027?

The answer could determine whether dissatisfaction reflected in surveys such as TIFA's develops into an electoral threat to President Ruto — or fades as economic conditions change.