Kenyans hoping for a quick drop in fuel prices may have to wait a little longer, even as tensions in the Middle East ease and global oil markets show signs of stability.

Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi said any relief at the pump will take time to filter through the system, pointing to the way Kenya prices imported fuel and the lag between global market shifts and local retail costs.

Speaking in an interview with NTV on Monday, June 15, Wandayi said improvements in supply routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, could eventually ease pressure on global oil prices. But he warned the effect would not be immediate.

“When the situation in the Middle East stabilises and normal supply resumes through key shipping routes, consumers will begin to see benefits. But it cannot happen instantly,” he said.

At the heart of his explanation is Kenya’s pricing structure. The country does not adjust fuel prices in real time. Instead, it relies on international benchmark prices from the previous month.

That means fuel arriving in a given month is priced using data from the month before, creating what officials describe as a built-in delay between global price changes and local pump prices.

“Fuel that is discharged in month X is priced against international benchmark prices of the previous month,” Wandayi said. “Any benefit from global stability is passed on progressively.”

In practical terms, even if global oil prices fall in June, Kenyan consumers may only start seeing changes at the pump in August or later.

Wandayi also cautioned that current pump prices reflect government subsidies, which cushion consumers from higher global costs. Any future reductions, he said, would be calculated from the actual cost of fuel without those supports.

“The prices we are currently seeing include a subsidy component,” he said. “Any reduction will be based on the real market price, not the subsidised figure.”

His remarks come shortly after the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) announced a downward adjustment in fuel prices for the June–July cycle. Diesel fell by Ksh 10 per litre, while petrol recorded a marginal drop of Ksh 0.22.

Globally, oil markets have been volatile in recent months, driven by shifting tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty around key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of the world’s crude oil passes.

For now, the government says the direction of global prices is encouraging. The timing of relief for consumers, however, remains uncertain.