Rainfall is expected to intensify across Nairobi and much of central Kenya over the coming days, the national weather agency has warned, raising concern for commuters and farmers while offering cautious reassurance on flood risks.

In its latest weekly bulletin, Kenya Meteorological Department said several regions would see heightened rainfall, with the Highlands east of the Rift Valley—home to Nairobi, Kiambu County and Murang'a County—among the areas most likely to be affected.

“Rainfall is expected over several parts of the country, with enhanced intensity over the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi,” the agency said.

Neighbouring counties, including Nyandarua County, Nyeri County, Kirinyaga County and Meru County, are also under watch, with similar conditions expected to persist through the week.

For many residents, the warning signals a familiar disruption. Heavy rains in these regions often lead to traffic congestion, rising food prices and, in some cases, localised flooding.

Attention is also turning to the Tana River, which has a long history of bursting its banks during intense rainy seasons. This time, however, forecasters struck a more measured tone.

According to the department’s flood watch update, water levels at Garissa are expected to remain below critical levels over the next seven days.

“Moderate rainfall is expected over the basin during the next seven days,” the agency said, adding that current projections show “no risk of flooding within the forecast period”.

That assurance is likely to ease fears among communities living along the river, where past floods have displaced families and destroyed crops.

Elsewhere, the forecast paints a mixed picture of the country’s climate.

Coastal counties such as Mombasa, Kilifi County and Kwale County are expected to record daytime temperatures above 30°C for much of the week. Similar heat is forecast in parts of eastern and northern Kenya, including Garissa County and Wajir County.

In contrast, nights in the central highlands are set to turn sharply colder. Temperatures in areas near Mount Kilimanjaro and parts of the Rift Valley could drop below 10°C, particularly in rural and high-altitude zones.

Along the coast, conditions at sea are expected to remain relatively calm, with light winds and moderate visibility. Small waves of up to three feet are forecast, with slightly choppier conditions in the afternoon.

Weather experts say the contrasting conditions reflect Kenya’s varied geography, where altitude and proximity to the ocean can produce sharply different climates within short distances.

For now, the message from forecasters is one of caution rather than alarm: carry an umbrella in Nairobi, keep an eye on local advisories, but do not expect major flooding—at least not this week.