A fresh climate advisory from the United States has raised concern over worsening dry conditions across Kenya and several East African countries, with scientists warning that the region may continue to miss expected short-rains well into the season.

In its latest update on Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said rainfall had remained far below average for two months, leaving parts of Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia “abnormally dry” and increasingly vulnerable.

“Over the past week, little to light rainfall was observed across many parts of East Africa,” NOAA noted, listing western Ethiopia, Uganda, the Lake Victoria region and central Kenya among the most affected. The agency warned that the trend was likely to persist. “Next week, little rainfall is expected in western Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, and southern Uganda,” it added.

The advisory comes at a time when much of Kenya should be experiencing the short rains—critical for agriculture, water supply and food production. A prolonged dry spell during this period could increase the risk of failed harvests and heighten food insecurity, particularly in areas still recovering from previous drought cycles.

While East Africa braces for continued dryness, NOAA forecast a contrasting pattern further south, with countries such as South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana and Namibia expecting above-average rainfall.

Kenya’s own meteorological agency has issued a similar outlook. In a forecast released on 17 November, the Kenya Meteorological Department said sunny and dry conditions were expected to dominate in the Rift Valley, Central Kenya, the Coast and much of the Lake Victoria basin. These regions cover more than 32 counties.

Only light rainfall is expected in parts of the south-eastern lowlands and select areas near Lake Victoria, including Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Trans Nzoia, Baringo, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nandi and Nakuru.

The department also cautioned that residents in the Highlands East of the Rift Valley—which include Nairobi, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Tharaka Nithi and Nyeri—should prepare for colder nights, a pattern that often accompanies extended dry spells.

With both domestic and international agencies issuing aligned warnings, questions now turn to preparedness, particularly for communities heavily reliant on rain-fed agriculture.
For many farmers, the coming weeks will determine whether the season delivers relief—or intensifies the challenges ahead.